"Courage is as often the outcome of despair as of hope; in the one case we have nothing to lose, in the other, everything to gain."
So said Diane de Poitiers sometime in the early 1500s. She was no doubt completely unaware at the time that she was uncannily summing up the challenge facing the teams fighting out the 2009 Brasilerão title race.
There for the taking
With just two rounds remaining the title is still anyone’s. It’s an engrossing four-way battle and there for the taking for any one of the teams that can find some courage and hold their nerve over the last few furlongs.
Legend has it that Madame de Poitiers was a half-decent sportswoman, a closer-than-his-wife-would-have-liked confidante of King Henry II of France and was once even entrusted to look after the country’s crown jewels.
Undoubtedly impressive credentials and such sage words, though it’s unclear whether she’d have had a few spare livres on the team she thought best placed to carry off Brazilian football’s most prized silverware for 2009.
With the Brasilerão’s fat lady readying herself behind the curtain, the top four are as close as our forecasting French femme and King Henry must have been, with São Paulo (62), Flamengo (61), Internacional (59) and Palmeiras (59) covered by just three points.
A wobble from São Paulo
Defending champions São Paulo lead the pack by a point, and have drawn their courage from the hope they can repeat their championship victories of the three previous seasons. That said, they hardly confirmed their grip on things with a wobbly 3-2 away defeat to relegation-threatened Botafogo in the last round.
As they have an already-bulging trophy cabinet it could be argued they really have nothing to lose this season. But as the current leaders and with a plum final-round home match against already-relegated Sport, it would be fair to say they have, if not everything, certainly an unprecedented consecutive quad of championships to gain.
Their wobble against Botafogo in the last round should have opened the door for second-placed Flamengo. With a later kick-off all they needed was a home win against feeble and free-falling Goiás, but not even the near-80,000 that wildly cheered them on at the Maracanã could change the 0-0 on the scoreboard.
Their courage comes in hope: hope of a first national title since 1992, and could well be bolstered now from the despair of chance after chance going begging against Goiás.
With the toughest final matches of the top four, it’s easy to say they have still put themselves in a good position and have nothing to lose, but you can bet they see it differently.
Internacional back in the hunt
Internacional were the only one of the top four to make round 36 work for them. While Palmeiras self-destructed against Grêmio and São Paulo and Flamengo couldn’t distance themselves at the top of the table with wins, Internacional travelled to one-time title challengers Atlético-MG and claimed a huge 1-0 win that put them right back in the hunt.
Their last title was way back in 1979, when they gained the unique distinction of going the entire league season without defeat. Their courage this season comes from the desperate hope that their 30-year drought could finally end.
As a definition for nothing to lose, Internacional are right on the money. One week ago, they weren’t really in the race, but now they’re three points off the top with two matches left: one against a relegated side and one against a mathematically relegated side. They also have the best goal difference of the teams in the top four and a bagful of momentum. Dark horses anyone?
As for Palmeiras…
If there is any courage to be found in this Palmeiras team, it would have to come from the total despair of what such a promising season has become.
At the end of September they were five points clear, but that’s when it all started to go wrong. Two weeks ago they finally relinquished their three-month lead of the table, and last week slid even further into despair when they had two players sent of at half-time in their 2-0 defeat against Grêmio for fighting with each other.
As if that wasn’t bad enough a tough away trip to Atlético-MG this week could see them leave the Brasilerão’s top four altogether. In a bitter twist it could certainly be noted that the everything Palmeiras were searching for could well be lost rather than gained…
If only Diane de Poitiers had known.