England’s preparation for the World Cup next summer can now really kick on as we officially know what we are up against. Friday’s draw gave Roy Hodgson much to fear, most notably a trip deep into the humidity of the Amazon to play Italy. But, England’s group may not be as bad as it appears on the surface.
Italy, Uruguay and Costa Rica, England’s opponents in the group stages are all top international sides. Italy, England’s first opponents will be the most familiar to us, having dumped us out of the Euro’s on penalties in 2012. But what won’t be familiar is the 80% humidity that the game will be played in. Hodgson had been quite vocal before the draw about wanting to avoid a game in the Amazon city of Manaus.
The conditions in Brazil, particularly in Manaus are exactly what teams from Europe fear about a World Cup in South America and initially it seemed that England had been handed the very worst of it. But, even though it is easy at times to look at England with a defeatist attitude, things aren’t as bad as they seem. If England are to play anyone in the heat of Manaus, Italy are perfect.
One thing we have to remember is that Italy will be no happier with the trip to the Amazon than England will be. As much as we like to complain about our weather (and with good cause!) Italy won’t be any more used to the humidity than we are. The fact that we don’t have to play Uruguay or Costa Rica in the heat is a blessing and in no way will we be able to blame our result against Italy on the conditions.
Another potential stumbling block could have simply been the vastness of Brazil itself. It was feared that England would have to travel far and wide across the country from their base in Rio. This is another bullet that seems to have been dodged. Aside from that aforementioned trip to Manaus England have a relatively modest travelling schedule. Great news for the squad and for the fan base that will be following the team to Brazil.
Lastly, the biggest of stumbling blocks, the three top teams who England have drawn. Italy we know, are a strong side. We know this first hand as they controlled the game when the two teams met in Euro 2012. However, England did then defeat the Azzurri 2-1 in their last meeting, when the nations met in an August friendly following the championships.
Uruguay and Costa Rica will also prove tough opposition. Luis Suárez alone will be a threat to England’s World Cup campaign. But, without wanting to take a slightly clichéd, glass-half-full attitude, it could have been a lot worse. There are teams in this tournament that are better than the three we are up against.
Plus, history seems to suggest that a tougher group draw may just play into the hands of England. It has long been known that the expectation that surrounds the England team can be crippling. The pressure that the team would face in a so-called easy group would have been intense. Now, the team can quietly go about their business. Safe in the knowledge that they have been handed a tough draw and that they will do well to progress from the group.
As I say, history suggests that this could be the case. 2010, England barely scraped through a group containing the USA, Algeria and Slovenia. 2002, England only managed draws with Sweden and Nigeria in the group stage but progressed due to a win over Argentina.
In Euro 2000 England failed to get past the group. This was despite a spirited performance in a defeat to Portugal and a 1-0 win over a Germany team that they were never expected to beat. Instead England were then eliminated after being beaten by a very average Romania team when expectations were heightened once again.
Even in Euro 96 the same applies. Possibly the nation’s favourite tournament since ’66 (aside from Italia '90), memories were forged forever in the championships played on home soil. Memories like England beating Spain in the quarter finals or smashing Holland 4-1. And in truth England’s performance in the semi-finals against eventual winners Germany should have been good enough to see them through.
But what is forgotten is the games that preceded these. England’s fairly lacklustre performance (aside from some Gascoigne magic) against a poor Scotland side at Wembley, and a boring 1-1 draw against Switzerland to kick off the tournament.
England go into the World Cup in Brazil knowing that little is expected and that could be just what they need. The pressure is off. Well, as much as it can be for an England side anyway. That being said, I hope that this doesn’t get read by too many people. Because the last thing England need is us all believing again.
Please just go back to thinking that we’ll struggle, please. Thanks.