'You don't realise what you have until it's gone'. This is just one version of a saying that you've most likely heard before. There's no definitive source for where it came from as it has been retold over time, but it does seem to be a piece of advice that could help some football managers.
Looking at the career path of a football manager there isn't a true template for success. The top level of managers will generally do well wherever they may be, whereas some will fail at one club but then achieve great things at another. And then there are those that start off their journey into management and make it look relatively easy.
However, there is a small pattern where this final group are concerned, and that's the lure of the double-edged sword of ambition. Of course all football managers are ambitious, but when their first job goes well reputations tend to become quite inflated, often leading to clubs from higher leagues seeing these managers as a perfect fit for their future.
You can see how it plays out over and over again. Young up-and-coming manager makes a mark with lower league club, and after a while a struggling club further up the football pyramid will want to tempt them to jump ship (before a rival gets in there first).
Sometimes the manager will resist and stay put. It might be because where he currently is there's a chance for promotion, or due to a promise of bigger funds. Either way it will be because that manager sees his own ambitions being matched by where he is incumbent. Even so, if we wait long enough, once a manager is being touted for 'bigger things' it really is only a matter of time before they'll move on.
My question is how often does this actually further a managerial CV, or does it usually end up being a wrong choice that undermines a once promising manager?
Think of Paulo di Canio and Paul Ince, both were eulogised at their first jobs in management, with Swindon Town and MK Dons respectively. And yet both made the mistake of thinking ahead too quickly and eyeing up a more lucrative post.
The travails of di Canio at Sunderland have been extensively covered, but consider that he had been able to curb his irritation at Swindon rather than resigning in February last year. At that stage there was every chance for the club to secure consecutive promotions and reach the Championship, if di Canio had achieved that he could have weighed up his options more sensibly. Now regrettably you could judge him as a flash in the pan.
As for Paul Ince, today marked the nadir in his pretty sorry-looking resume. Sacked by Blackpool after a terrible run of form, things were markedly different for the Guv'nor back in 2008. After an initial foray into management with Macclesfield Town, Ince took the reigns at MK Dons and had an impressive first season which culminated in them winning the Football League Trophy and promotion as League Two champions.
With good reason Ince was being touted as a manager for the future, but rather than biding his time and establishing the MK Dons in League One, an offer came from Blackburn Rovers and he was unable to resist the leap to the Premier League. Whilst this was understandable and some may protest that he deserved more time than the 6 months that he eventually got; on the other hand a manager that craves the exposure of the top division should recognise that they'll be under greater pressure to deliver.
There are many examples of managers that have made their name at a club early in their career and subsequently failed to live up to it after choosing to leave. Take Iain Dowie after Crystal Palace or worse Owen Coyle who left Burnley half-way through the 2009/10 Premier League. He enjoyed another season in the top flight with Bolton, but since getting them relegated in 2012 and then failing at Wigan earlier this season- on reflection perhaps he should have stayed at Turf Moor.
I do sympathise with all of these managers, especially André Villas-Boas who also falls into this category. His efforts at Porto were justly rewarded, but once again, was AVB foolish to be dazzled by the bright lights so early in his progression? By staying at Porto for a season or two longer, might he have had more respect from players at a new club, and might his chairman have been less willing to cut his losses so early?
A lot of this is conjecture, but there is plenty of logic to my reasoning. Managers and footballers will make only so many moves between clubs and they need to choose them carefully. With top players they want to know if they'll have better opportunities to win trophies and be paid what they think they're worth, with those in the lower leagues the aims may be different but the ambition is the same.
And so too with managers. When being offered the job at a higher level you can't blame them for taking it, maybe there is a fear that if they don't do so then their moment will have passed. Still, I would argue that if you really are destined for the top, then those chances will finally come. For example, Paul Lambert, Brendan Rodgers and to a lesser extent Roberto Martinez. They all took their time to hone their craft outside of the top tier, and they have since secured well-timed moves to a big club.
Clearly there is no exact science to this, but what is noticeable is the danger of making the wrong move in the early days of a managerial CV. Paulo di Canio and Paul Ince will probably get offers to take charge at other clubs, but the likelihood of either managing again in the Premier League seems fairly remote at best. AVB is similarly damaged, but he has far more value and will rise again.
From now onwards I'll be keeping a close eye on Ole Gunnar Solskjær at Cardiff and Uwe Rösler at Wigan. These two are poised in the relative infancy of their managerial paths and it will be fascinating to see if they fall like Paul Ince, or rise like Brendan Rodgers. To end as we started, on a coined phrase, we'll soon know if their timing is everything...